sellershortsIs It Too Late to Start Selling on Amazon in 2026?
Fewer people are starting, the top sellers take more, and the fees keep rising. But new sellers still generated over $18 billion in 2025. Here is the honest picture.
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Quick Answer
No, it is not too late, but it is harder and more concentrated than it was five years ago. Amazon's own 2025 report says new sellers generated over $18 billion in sales that year, which means the door is open. The catch is that the top roughly 1.6% of sellers drive about half of third-party GMV, so the market now rewards preparation and capital rather than luck.
- New sellers still produced over $18 billion in 2025 (Amazon, 2025)
- New seller sign-ups fell 44% year over year (Marketplace Pulse, 2025)
- The top ~1.6% of sellers take about half of third-party GMV
- The winning profile is differentiated product plus real capital
This question gets two useless answers online. One camp says the golden age is over and you missed it. The other camp sells a course promising it is easier than ever. Neither is looking at the data.
So this piece uses only two kinds of sources: Amazon's own published reports, and named research from Marketplace Pulse. Where a number is a model or an estimate, we say so. Where the honest answer is that nobody knows, we say that too.
Reviewed by the SellerShorts editorial bench. SellerShorts runs an AI tool marketplace for Amazon teams.
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The honest answer up front
It is not too late, but the version of Amazon selling that worked in 2018 is gone. You cannot pick a generic product, slap a logo on it, and expect the marketplace to carry you. That path is closed. What is still open is a slower, more deliberate path that looks much more like starting a normal business.
- Demand is still enormous. Amazon remains the place shoppers go to search for products.
- Competition is more concentrated. A small group of sellers takes a large share of the money.
- Costs are higher. Fees, ads, and inventory all cost more than they used to.
- Fewer people are trying. Which cuts both ways, as we will see.
How big the opportunity actually is
The market is very large, and independent sellers own most of it. That is the single most important fact for anyone weighing up whether to start.
- Amazon's own 2025 Small Business report says independent sellers account for more than 60% of sales in Amazon's store.
- Marketplace Pulse reports third-party sellers at roughly 60 to 62% of units and about 69% of GMV.
- Marketplace Pulse models total marketplace GMV at around $830 billion in 2025. Amazon publishes no headline GMV figure, so this is a research model rather than a company disclosure.
The size of the pie is not the problem. Amazon is not running out of buyers. The question is whether you can get a slice.
Fewer sellers are starting, and that is new
Amazon seller numbers went backwards in 2025, which had not been the usual pattern. Marketplace Pulse reports two figures that stand out.
| Metric | 2025 figure | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Active sellers | About 1.65 million by end of 2025 | Fell |
| New sellers listing a first product | About 165,000 | Down 44% year over year |
| New seller count versus history | Lowest since tracking began in 2015 | Record low |
Both figures come from Marketplace Pulse. A 44% drop in new sellers is not a small wobble. It tells you that the people who used to try Amazon as a low-risk side project have largely stopped, most likely because the cost and difficulty of entry rose.
The concentration problem
This is the number that explains most of what new sellers experience. Marketplace Pulse reports that the top roughly 1.6% of sellers drive about half of third-party GMV.
- Half the money goes to a tiny group. That group has scale, capital, and years of review history.
- The other half is split across everyone else. Which is still a very large amount, but spread thin.
- Averages become misleading. Any average seller revenue figure is pulled upward by the top slice.
- You do not compete with the marketplace, you compete inside a category. Concentration is what you feel on page one of a search.
The practical reading is that broad, generic categories are effectively spoken for. Narrower categories where the top sellers are not paying attention are where a new seller can actually land.
What sellers are actually earning
Amazon publishes seller performance figures in its own reports, and they are worth quoting exactly.
- Over 75,000 independent sellers passed $1 million in sales in 2025, up 36% from 2024 (Amazon, 2025).
- US sellers averaged over $375,000 in annual sales (Amazon, 2025).
- New sellers generated over $18 billion in sales in 2025 (Amazon, 2025).
Two cautions. These are sales, not profit, and on Amazon the gap between the two is wide once you account for referral fees, fulfillment, storage, ads, and returns. And an average is not a typical seller, because a small number of very large sellers pull it up.
Still, the $18 billion figure is the one that answers the headline question. Sellers who started in 2025 collectively did $18 billion of business. That is not a closed market.
What genuinely got harder
Being honest about the difficulty is more useful than cheerleading. Here is what has changed against the new seller.
- Fees went up. Referral fees are usually around 15%, and fulfillment and storage sit on top of that. Fees rose again in 2026.
- Ads are close to mandatory. A new listing with no sales history needs paid traffic to get its first signals.
- Reviews take longer to build. Legitimate routes are slower than the shortcuts that used to exist.
- Established sellers defend their categories. They have budget, data, and inventory depth you do not.
- Cash requirements are real. You fund inventory before you get paid, and that gap is where most new sellers stall.
What is still genuinely open
Against all that, several structural advantages are still intact for a prepared new seller.
- The demand is already there. You do not have to build an audience from zero the way a new website does.
- Fewer new entrants means fewer new rivals. The 44% drop in new sellers thins the crowd chasing the same niches.
- Most listings are still badly built. Empty attribute fields, weak images, and thin keyword coverage are everywhere.
- New seller incentives reduce launch cost. Ad credits, storage waivers, and logistics credits soften the first year.
- Narrow niches are underserved. The big sellers chase volume, which leaves specific problems unaddressed.
The failure rate question, answered honestly
You will see confident percentages for how many new Amazon sellers fail or turn a profit. We are not going to give you one, because the available data does not support it.
- The common source is a seller survey. Jungle Scout's annual seller survey is the one most often cited for new seller profitability.
- Surveys reach survivors. Sellers who gave up are not in the panel, so the reported profitability rate is biased upward.
- Amazon does not publish failure data. No official number exists to check against.
- The right conclusion is directional, not numeric. A lot of new sellers do not make it, and the surveys probably understate that.
If an article states a hard failure percentage as fact, it is repeating a survey without noting who answered it.
Who should start, and who should not
The market has become a filter. It sorts on preparation and capital rather than enthusiasm.
| Signal | Good sign | Warning sign |
|---|---|---|
| Product | Solves a specific problem better than what is listed | A generic item with your logo on it |
| Capital | Can fund inventory plus ads through a slow first months | Counting on first sales to pay for the second order |
| Margin | Modelled per ASIN in Amazon's Revenue Calculator | Estimated from a rough percentage in your head |
| Time horizon | Planning in quarters | Expecting results in weeks |
| Category | Narrow, specific, underserved | Broad and dominated by entrenched brands |
Limitations of this analysis
A few caveats are worth stating plainly, because they change how much weight these numbers deserve.
- GMV is modelled, not disclosed. Amazon does not publish a marketplace GMV figure, so the $830 billion number is a Marketplace Pulse estimate.
- Amazon's own figures are selective. Companies publish the numbers that flatter them, which is normal but worth remembering.
- Averages hide the spread. An average seller revenue figure tells you little about the median seller.
- Results vary hugely by category. A crowded category and a niche category behave nothing alike.
Conclusion
It is not too late, but the easy version is over. The market is bigger than ever and independent sellers own most of it. At the same time, entries collapsed 44% in 2025 and a tiny fraction of sellers take about half the money.
The honest summary: harder and more concentrated than five years ago, yet new sellers still generated over $18 billion in 2025. What that rewards is preparation and capital, not luck. If you go in with a differentiated product, funded inventory, and listings built properly from day one, you are competing on the terms that still work. Our Amazon Listing Optimizer handles that last part in one run. Next reads: a realistic launch plan for new Amazon sellers, why new Amazon sellers fail, and what Amazon's new seller incentives are really worth.
References
Frequently asked questions
Is it too late to start selling on Amazon in 2026?
No, but it is harder than it was five years ago. Amazon's own 2025 report says new sellers generated over $18 billion in sales that year, so the door is clearly open. What has changed is that the market is more concentrated and less forgiving, so preparation and capital matter far more than they used to.
How big is Amazon's third-party marketplace?
Amazon's own 2025 Small Business report says independent sellers account for more than 60% of sales in Amazon's store. Marketplace Pulse, a named research firm, reports third-party sellers at roughly 60 to 62% of units and about 69% of GMV, and models total marketplace GMV at around $830 billion in 2025. Amazon does not publish a headline GMV number itself.
Are fewer people starting Amazon businesses now?
Yes. Marketplace Pulse reports that about 165,000 new sellers listed their first product in 2025, down 44% year over year and the lowest since their tracking began in 2015. Active sellers also fell to roughly 1.65 million by the end of 2025.
Does fewer new sellers mean less competition?
Partly, but not in the way it sounds. Fewer entrants means fewer new competitors, but the sellers who remain are more established and better funded. Marketplace Pulse reports the top roughly 1.6% of sellers drive about half of third-party GMV, so the competition you face is concentrated at the top rather than spread thin.
How much do Amazon sellers actually make?
Amazon's own 2025 report says US sellers averaged over $375,000 in annual sales, and that over 75,000 independent sellers passed $1 million in sales, up 36% from 2024. Note these are sales figures, not profit, and averages hide a wide spread between the top and the bottom.
What percentage of new Amazon sellers fail?
We do not have a reliable number, and you should be skepticalb of anyone who gives you one. The commonly cited figures come from seller surveys, which are answered by sellers who are still active. Sellers who quit are not around to fill in the survey, so the results understate failure.
What kind of seller still does well in 2026?
Sellers with a differentiated product, enough capital to fund inventory and ads through a slow start, correct listing fundamentals from day one, and the patience to run it as a business rather than a side experiment. The market rewards preparation, not luck.
Should I start on Amazon or somewhere else?
That depends on what you have. Amazon gives you demand you do not have to create, which is a real advantage over building traffic from zero. The trade is thinner margins and less control. If your product is genuinely differentiated and you can fund inventory, Amazon is still a reasonable place to start.
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